Affording Oil

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Inspired by a comment on my previous post, I decided to take a look at the data provided for crude oil consumption on the World Factbook. This include oil production, exports and imports. From this I ... Read More

How did I do?

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Yesterday I predicted a 92% chance of a Conservative majority, which we now know has not happened. I over-predicted the number of Conservative seats, and under-predicted Labour seats (by about 25 seat... Read More

Final Election Forecast

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It’s election day in the UK, and polls open in a little over 30 minutes. Here’s my final forecast with the latest polling data: CON 345 +/- 14 (+15) LAB 238 +/- 14 (+6) LD 9 +/- 2 (+1) SNP... Read More

Election Forecast Update

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A host of new polls have been released since my last forecast update, with the Conservative lead ranging from one to 12 points in polls from the last two days. The variation here is large, but on aver... Read More

Election Forecast Update

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I’ve discussed the methodology of my election forecast here, so here’s an update with the latest polling numbers from britainelects.com. Expected seat numbers are now: Con 381 +/- 12 (-25... Read More

Latex Exam Package

When writing a maths exam recently I was looking for a method that would: Nicely typeset equations Automate things such as question numbering and finding total marks Look good Be easy to use I found ... Read More

Election Modelling

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With the UK election on the way I thought I would try out a simple analysis to try and predict the result based on national polling figures. For anyone unfamiliar, the UK uses a first-past-the-post pa... Read More