I’ve discussed the methodology of my election forecast here, so here’s an update with the latest polling numbers from britainelects.com.

Expected seat numbers are now:
  • Con 381 +/- 12 (-25)
  • Lab 193 +/- 12 (+28)
  • LD 7 +/- 1 (-2)
  • SNP 46 +/- 5 (-1)
This is a result of a boost in polling numbers for Labour, who appear to have taken voters from both the Lib Dems and UKIP, as well as taking back the lead in Wales. The overall Conservative poll share is relatively steady at the moment.

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