How did I do?

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Yesterday I predicted a 92% chance of a Conservative majority, which we now know has not happened. I over-predicted the number of Conservative seats, and under-predicted Labour seats (by about 25 seat... Read More

Final Election Forecast

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It’s election day in the UK, and polls open in a little over 30 minutes. Here’s my final forecast with the latest polling data: CON 345 +/- 14 (+15) LAB 238 +/- 14 (+6) LD 9 +/- 2 (+1) SNP... Read More

Election Forecast Update

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A host of new polls have been released since my last forecast update, with the Conservative lead ranging from one to 12 points in polls from the last two days. The variation here is large, but on aver... Read More