A host of new polls have been released since my last forecast update, with the Conservative lead ranging from one to 12 points in polls from the last two days. The variation here is large, but on average the gap between the two main parties is narrowing. New polls have also been released for Wales and Scotland, showing Labour drawing level with the Conservatives in Scotland and very little change in Wales.
In England, the average Conservative lead is now 8.3 points according to Britain Elects. Putting these polls into my model predicts:
- CON 346 +/- 13 (-35)
- LAB 227 +/- 13 (+34)
- LD 7 +/- 2 (-)
- SNP 49 +/- 4 (+4)
With changes compared to the last update. Most notably there is now a non-negligible chance of a hung parliament: the probability of a Conservative majority is 94%. The histograms are now:
The Conservatives are still clearly in the lead, but for the first time Labour have a chance of beating them: it happened twice in 10000 simulations!