It’s election day in the UK, and polls open in a little over 30 minutes. Here’s my final forecast with the latest polling data:
- CON 345 +/- 14 (+15)
- LAB 238 +/- 14 (+6)
- LD 9 +/- 2 (+1)
- SNP 36 +/- 7 (-20)
Changes are relative to the last general election in 2015. There’s very little change since my previous forecast, with the exception that the latest poll for Scotland by Survation has given Labour a boost at the expense of the SNP. As a result, Labour have picked up a few seats in Scotland. Given the small amount of polling that is done in Scotland, however, it’s hard to say how accurate this poll is.
A few stats from this simulation:
- The Conservatives have a 92% chance of winning an overall majority.
- Labour have a 0.2% chance of winning more seats than the Conservatives
- The chances of the Conservatives and Labour increasing their seat numbers compared to 2015 are 87% and 66% respectively
- The chance of the Conservative seat lead over Labour increasing compared to 2015 is 70%.
Finally, the histograms: